Will James Talarico be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party for the 2028 election who accepts the nomination.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party for the 2028 election who accepts the nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources, and the rules explicitly state that any subsequent replacement of the nominee will not affect the outcome.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▼ −1.75 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether James Talarico will be the Democratic Party's Vice-Presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Notably, the market fixes on the first person formally nominated who accepts, ignoring any subsequent nominee replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if James Talarico is the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first formally nominated candidate to accept the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official party website.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the Democratic Party website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·