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PoliticsCloses · in 725 days$1.2K volumePart of: Republican VP Nominee 2028 →

Will Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market clearly defines resolution around the first person to receive and accept the formal Republican Party vice-presidential nomination for the 2028 cycle.

Read the full assessment

This market clearly defines resolution around the first person to receive and accept the formal Republican Party vice-presidential nomination for the 2028 cycle. Resolution relies on official Republican Party sources, including the party website, which provides unambiguous documentation of formal convention outcomes. An explicit clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee later in the campaign will not alter the initial resolution.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

17%

chance

▲ +7 pts · 24h

Yes17¢
No83¢
Ron DeSantis · Yes · 1MO 1.0 H 32.5 L 0.9 C 17.4+16.4 (+1640.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +24 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 15:25 UTC

The price rose from 2% to 26% in a market with low tradability, zero order-book depth within 5 cents, and a wide bid-ask spread of 39%, indicating thin liquidity as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 62% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 728 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: Thomas Massie (up), John Thune (up), Greg Abbott (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 06:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Ron DeSantis will become the official 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee. Resolution hinges solely on the first person formally nominated who accepts the nomination, regardless of any later replacements before election day.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if Ron DeSantis is the first person to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accepts the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official GOP sources, including the GOP website.

Resolution source

A consensus of official GOP sources, including the GOP website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·