Will Josh Hawley be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has straightforward and unambiguous resolution criteria.
Read the full assessment
The market has straightforward and unambiguous resolution criteria. It resolves based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Republican Party for the 2028 election and accepts the nomination. Resolution relies directly on official party confirmation from sources including the official GOP website. An explicit clause ensures that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the original resolution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Hawley becomes the Republican Party's formal vice-presidential nominee for the 2028 election cycle. A key aspect is that resolution fixes to the first person who formally accepts the nomination, regardless of any subsequent replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Josh Hawley is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accept, or if Hawley is not that person. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not change the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official GOP sources, including the official party website.
Resolution source
A consensus of official GOP sources, including gop.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·