brierpoınt
PoliticsCloses · in 725 days$1.6K volumePart of: Republican VP Nominee 2028 →

Will John Thune be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market has straightforward criteria, resolving based on the first person formally nominated for Vice President by the Republican Party for the 2028 election who accepts the nomination.

Read the full assessment

The market has straightforward criteria, resolving based on the first person formally nominated for Vice President by the Republican Party for the 2028 election who accepts the nomination. Resolution relies directly on official party sources, specifically citing the official party website. A standard clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee after the formal nomination will not affect the outcome.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

<1%

chance

▼ −0.95 pts · 24h

Yes<1¢
No>99¢
John Thune · Yes · 1MO 0.8 H 22.8 L 0.7 C 0.9+0.2 (+20.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −23 pts24h · detected 13 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTC

The price fell from 24% to 1% as part of a broader repricing across 6 related outcomes for the nomination, with contenders including Ron DeSantis, Brian Kemp, and Thomas Massie also seeing downward moves.

  • Largest hourly change: 10:00 UTC, 59% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 726 days after the move hour.
  • 6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: Ron DeSantis (down), Brian Kemp (down), Thomas Massie (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 08:35 UTC

Earlier

▲ +23 pts · 12 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTCThe price rose from 1% to 24% as the broader 2028 Republican VP field repriced, coinciding with moves in 3 related candidates including declines for Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.News check pending.AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 08:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market explained

This market measures whether John Thune will become the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee. Resolution depends on who is first formally nominated and accepts, and it is not affected by any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if John Thune is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accepts. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official GOP sources, including the official GOP website.

Resolution source

A consensus of official GOP sources, including the official GOP website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·