Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define the outcome metrics, including how market capitalization is calculated using outstanding shares and the closing price on the first trading day.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define the outcome metrics, including how market capitalization is calculated using outstanding shares and the closing price on the first trading day. The primary resolution source is designated as the listing exchange's official page, with standard fallback provisions. The rules also explicitly specify tie-breaking rules for boundary values, handle shortened or interrupted trading sessions, and provide a clear deadline of December 31, 2027, if no initial public offering takes place.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
16%
chance▼ −1.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading falls between 0.9T and 1.2T by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization at market close on its first day of trading falls between 0.9T and 1.2T. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the market capitalization falls outside this range upon IPO. The market resolves to 'No IPO by December 31, 2027' if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed. Market cap is calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. If trading is interrupted, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official closing price is treated as the first day of trading.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·