Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly defined, specifying that market capitalization will be calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price on the primary exchange on the first trading day.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly defined, specifying that market capitalization will be calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price on the primary exchange on the first trading day. Clear rules handle edge cases, including trading interruptions, boundary values between brackets, and the exact deadline if no initial public offering occurs before December 31, 2027. Resolution relies on the primary exchange's official listing page, with secondary sources referenced only as a fallback if the primary exchange does not display the necessary figure.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −0.6 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization falls between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on its initial public offering (IPO) day by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic conducts an IPO by December 31, 2027, and its market capitalization at the official closing price on its first day of trading falls between 0.6T and 0.9T (inclusive of the upper boundary if it falls exactly between brackets). Market capitalization is calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. If an abbreviated session occurs, its official close is used; otherwise, the next trading day with a published close is treated as the first day. The market resolves to No if the market capitalization on IPO day falls outside this range. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·