Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear, comprehensive definitions of what constitutes an arrest or detention, including explicit exclusions such as brief detentions, unexecuted warrants, and indictments without custody.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear, comprehensive definitions of what constitutes an arrest or detention, including explicit exclusions such as brief detentions, unexecuted warrants, and indictments without custody. The deadline is explicitly set to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. While official law enforcement records are designated as the primary source, the rules also permit resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, introducing a moderate degree of decider discretion, though the qualifying legal events themselves are well delineated.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether former FBI Director James Comey is arrested or detained by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if James Comey is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement; voluntary surrender for an arrest warrant; formal booking/processing; being handcuffed and taken to a police station; surrendering at a police station or courthouse with an attorney; or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The market resolves to No if he is not arrested by the deadline, or if there is only an unexecuted warrant, brief non-arrest detention, questioning/interviewing without arrest, or an indictment without arrest. Resolution is decided using official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·