Who will be arrested before 2027?
8 live outcomes · highest priced: James Comey at 8% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $691.8K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether specified prominent public figures will be arrested before 2027. Each market measures the potential arrest or qualifying detention of a single named individual within the specified timeframe.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of individual markets for distinct individuals. More than one market can resolve Yes, as each person's arrest or detention is evaluated independently.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the named individual is arrested or subjected to a qualifying detention by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include physical custody by law enforcement, voluntary surrender under an arrest warrant, formal booking, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, brief detentions, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. If no qualifying arrest occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | 8% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Anthony Fauci | 4% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Loretta Lynch | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Barack Obama | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Bill Clinton | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Hillary Clinton | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Gavin Newsom | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Pam Bondi | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| John Brennan | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Mahmoud Khalil | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| James Clapper | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Adam Schiff | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Letitia James | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Susan Rice | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Candace Owens | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| John Kerry | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Tom Homan | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Kash Patel | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Brandon Johnson | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Lisa Cook | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Lee Jun-seok | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Joe Biden | — | — | Low | Med |