Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide comprehensive and explicit definitions of what actions count as an arrest (including physical custody, surrendering to a warrant, formal booking, handcuffs, and house arrest) versus what actions do not (such as unexecuted warrants, brief detentions awaiting warrants, questioning, or indictments).
Read the full assessment
The rules provide comprehensive and explicit definitions of what actions count as an arrest (including physical custody, surrendering to a warrant, formal booking, handcuffs, and house arrest) versus what actions do not (such as unexecuted warrants, brief detentions awaiting warrants, questioning, or indictments). The deadline is clearly defined as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. While resolution relies primarily on official statements from the arresting government, it permits a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source, introducing a moderate amount of evaluative discretion if official documentation is delayed or contested.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested, placed under house arrest, or voluntarily surrender to law enforcement before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering in response to a warrant or with an attorney, being booked, handcuffed and taken to a police station, or placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, brief detentions without arrest, questioning, and indictments without arrest do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Official government or law enforcement information decides, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·