Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market establishes clear and specific criteria for what constitutes a qualifying arrest or detention, including explicit exclusions for unexecuted warrants, brief investigative detentions, and indictments without custody.
Read the full assessment
The market establishes clear and specific criteria for what constitutes a qualifying arrest or detention, including explicit exclusions for unexecuted warrants, brief investigative detentions, and indictments without custody. The deadline is firmly set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies primarily on official law enforcement or government records, with a consensus of credible media reporting permitted as a backup. There are minimal structural ambiguities or unusual clauses that would lead to unexpected resolution outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether former U.S. President Barack Obama will be arrested or placed under qualifying detention before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement; voluntary surrender for an arrest warrant; formal booking/processing; being handcuffed and taken to a police station; surrendering at a courthouse or station with an attorney; or house arrest and electronic monitoring. The market resolves to No if these events do not occur by the deadline. Unexecuted warrants, brief detentions without arrest, questioning/interviews without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement decides the resolution, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·