Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines what qualifies as an arrest or detention, including physical custody, voluntary surrender under a warrant, booking, and house arrest, while explicitly ruling out unexecuted warrants, questioning, and mere indictments.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines what qualifies as an arrest or detention, including physical custody, voluntary surrender under a warrant, booking, and house arrest, while explicitly ruling out unexecuted warrants, questioning, and mere indictments. The deadline is explicit at December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Official government and law enforcement records serve as the primary source, with consensus credible reporting permitted as a secondary basis, introducing minor decider latitude if official documentation is delayed or ambiguous.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pam Bondi is arrested or detained by law enforcement before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pam Bondi is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering due to an arrest warrant, being booked or processed, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering at a station or courthouse with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, brief detentions without arrest, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying arrest occurs by the deadline. Resolution relies on official government and law enforcement information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·