Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly identify the winning condition, expressly account for potential runoff rounds, and establish a long resolution buffer through late October 2028 in case of delays.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly identify the winning condition, expressly account for potential runoff rounds, and establish a long resolution buffer through late October 2028 in case of delays. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but the rules provide clear fallback criteria referencing official Argentinian electoral bodies such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral if reporting is ambiguous.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Market explained
This market measures whether Mauricio Macri will win the next Argentinian presidential election scheduled for 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mauricio Macri wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the definitive results are not known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Argentina government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to official Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·