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PoliticsCloses · Listed close date has passed.$38.6K volumePart of: Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? →

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective criteria for coalition membership, explicitly requiring a party to hold at least one Cabinet post to qualify.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide clear and objective criteria for coalition membership, explicitly requiring a party to hold at least one Cabinet post to qualify. Parties providing confidence-and-supply or holding ministerial roles outside Cabinet do not count, which is a key distinction in New Zealand parliamentary practice that could catch some participants off guard. The resolution relies on official government confirmations from the Governor-General, backed by credible reporting, with explicit matching rules, tie-break procedures based on parliamentary seats and party votes, and a generous longstop date of December 31, 2027.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Last captured price

83%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes83¢
No18¢

National + ACT + NZF · Yes · 1MO 40.0 H 82.5 L 27.0 C 82.5+42.5 (+106.3%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +30 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 06:55 UTC

The price rose from 57% to 80% alongside repricing in 3 related coalition outcomes, including Labour + Green and Labour + Green + Maori, which moved during the same period.

  • Largest hourly change: 06:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 18 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: Labour + Green (up), Labour + Green + Maori (down), Other (up).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 16:35 UTC

Resolution rules

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.

Market explained

This market measures whether the first governing coalition formed after the next New Zealand general election consists of National, ACT, and New Zealand First (NZF). It requires participating parties to hold at least one Cabinet post.

How it resolves

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official New Zealand government information deciding in case of ambiguity. The market resolves to Yes if the first ruling coalition formed under non-caretaker circumstances after the next general election includes National, ACT, and NZF, each holding at least one Cabinet post, and no other option provides a more complete match. Parties with outside support or confidence-and-supply agreements without Cabinet posts do not count. The market resolves to No if any of National, ACT, or NZF are not included in the coalition, or if another listed option matches the coalition more completely. The market resolves to Other if the governing coalition does not include all parties of any listed option, or if the ruling coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·