Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market asks whether a specific individual will be the de facto leader, but the rules state the market resolves generally to the individual holding effective executive authority, or to 'No Head of State' if nobody does.
Read the full assessment
This market asks whether a specific individual will be the de facto leader, but the rules state the market resolves generally to the individual holding effective executive authority, or to 'No Head of State' if nobody does. Determining de facto control relies on broad qualitative criteria such as effective control over armed forces and ministries rather than official constitutional title or international recognition. Resolution depends entirely on reaching a consensus across credible reporting without a designated official source, leaving significant room for interpretation if power is disputed or divided.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jorge Rodríguez de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Jorge Rodríguez exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves No if another individual holds this de facto authority, or if no individual exercises effective governing control (resolving to 'No Head of State'). Formal appointment, UN recognition, and foreign recognition are not required, while symbolic status or recognition without domestic control does not qualify. If multiple people claim power, resolution goes to whoever demonstrably exercises primary governing control. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·