Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine who exercises de facto executive control over Venezuela at exactly 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine who exercises de facto executive control over Venezuela at exactly 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Because no official registry or specific government authority is designated to resolve the market, the decider must interpret broad qualitative indicators—such as operational control over the armed forces, ministries, and core infrastructure—if leadership is contested. The rules clarify that international recognition and formal constitutional titles do not determine the outcome, and they provide a fallback to 'No Head of State' if power is fragmented.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás Maduro is the de facto leader and head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. Unusually, resolution relies strictly on practical governing authority and territorial control rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Nicolás Maduro de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, meaning he exercises primary executive authority including control over armed forces, national institutions, and core decision-making regardless of formal title or foreign recognition. The market resolves No if another individual holds this de facto authority, or if no individual exercises effective governing control. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, and nominations without effective authority do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·