Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on determining who holds de facto power rather than official constitutional title or international recognition.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on determining who holds de facto power rather than official constitutional title or international recognition. Evaluating effective control over armed forces, ministries, and core infrastructure during a potential political crisis requires significant subjective judgment. The resolution basis is defined as a consensus of credible reporting rather than a definitive official source, which leaves the ultimate determination to the market decider's interpretation of news coverage. However, the specific snapshot date and time are clearly stated, and the rules include fallback criteria if power is disputed or absent.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Diosdado Cabello Rondón is the de facto leader and head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies on practical domestic governing control over state institutions and armed forces rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Diosdado Cabello Rondón de facto holds and exercises primary executive authority over Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, demonstrated by effective control over the armed forces, executive institutions, and core state infrastructure regardless of formal titles or recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual exercises this primary governing control, or if no individual exercises effective governing control resulting in a 'No Head of State' outcome. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, and expired prior service do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·