Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: No named official authority decides the outcome; resolution relies on an adjudicator assessing a consensus of credible reporting.
Read the full assessment
No named official authority decides the outcome; resolution relies on an adjudicator assessing a consensus of credible reporting. The rules set specific definitional boundaries by requiring actions by state actors or security forces, explicitly excluding non-state actions, protests, and foiled plots where execution was never actually attempted. Furthermore, official claims by the Russian government do not count unless credible independent media widely and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Anyone holding a position should be aware that classifying internal power struggles, mutinies, or disrupted plots depends heavily on subjective journalistic phrasing across independent news outlets.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt occurs in Russia by the end of 2026. Resolution requires an executed attempt involving state actors rather than purely non-state unrest or unexecuted foiled plots.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A coup attempt must be a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or leadership. Claims of foiled coups count only if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize them as such, while foiled plots or arrests without any attempted execution do not qualify. Actions solely by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest also do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·