Russia coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority, requiring subjective judgment to determine whether an event meets the definition of an attempted coup.
Read the full assessment
This market depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority, requiring subjective judgment to determine whether an event meets the definition of an attempted coup. The rules specifically exclude revolutionary actions by non-state forces, protests, and general unrest, while requiring an attempted execution rather than merely disrupted planning or arrests announced by the Russian government. Distinguishing between a high-level mutiny, an armed rebellion, a foiled conspiracy, and an actual coup attempt relies heavily on how independent media frame ambiguous security developments, creating potential room for dispute.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
15%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt occurs in Russia by December 31, 2027. Notably, non-state revolutionary actions, protests, and foiled plots without execution do not qualify, and government claims of foiled attempts require independent credible confirmation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A coup attempt requires a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or state actors to overthrow or seize control of the Russian government or leadership. Non-state revolutionary actions, isolated protests, general unrest, and foiled plots or arrests without attempted execution do not qualify. Russian government claims of foiled coups only count if credible independent sources widely report and characterize the event as a coup attempt. The market resolves to No otherwise. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·