Russia coup attempt by...?

This event tracks whether a coup attempt will occur in Russia by specific future cutoff dates. Each market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt takes place between market creation and the specified deadline.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a series of time-based deadlines. Because each market covers the timeframe from creation up to its specific end date, an qualifying event occurring before the earlier deadline would cause multiple markets across the timeline to resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia between market creation and the specified cutoff date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated, deliberate effort by military, security forces, or state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or leadership. Foiled plots, arrests without attempted execution, non-state revolutionary actions, isolated protests, or general unrest do not qualify unless credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

• 2026 deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET
• 2027 deadline: Dec 31, 2027 — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

A consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 7 Nov 2026, 00:29 UTC