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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 52 days$1.1M volumePart of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? →

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide clear, objective criteria and name a specific data source at Nasdaq Private Market to assess valuation.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide clear, objective criteria and name a specific data source at Nasdaq Private Market to assess valuation. The timeframe (through December 31, 2026), daily publication cadence, and specific threshold direction (equal to or above $2.0T for HIGH) are well-defined. Detailed fallback provisions handle edge cases such as IPOs, direct listings, mergers, acquisitions, and missing or delayed NPM reporting without relying on decider discretion.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

24%

chance

▼ −5.5 pts · 24h

Yes24¢
No76¢
↑$2.0T · Yes · 1MO 57.0 H 74.0 L 9.5 C 24.0−33.0 (−57.9%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +13 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 23:55 UTC

The price rose from 14% to 27% as 3 related valuation tiers repriced alongside this market, shifting relative odds across the different valuation thresholds.

  • Largest hourly change: 23:00 UTC, 70% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 55 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: ↑$1.5T (down), ↑$2.25T (down), ↑$2.5T (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 00:05 UTC

Earlier

▼ −22 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 13:40 UTCThe probability of Anthropic's valuation reaching $2.0T fell from 31% to 10%, with the move occurring alongside 3 related valuation outcomes for the company repricing together.News check pending.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 00:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Rules history

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic's private market valuation or public market capitalization reaches at least $2.0T on or before December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, reaches at least $2.0T on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the market also resolves to Yes if the valuation implied by the official listing price or its public market capitalization reaches at least $2.0T. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not reach $2.0T during the period. The primary resolution source is Nasdaq Private Market, LLC data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO or direct listing.

Resolution source

Nasdaq Private Market, LLC data, and official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts if an IPO or direct listing occurs

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·