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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 52 days$990.3K volumePart of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? →

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

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Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify a single, authoritative private market data provider (Nasdaq Private Market) via a direct URL, alongside explicit mathematical criteria for both private valuations and potential post-IPO public market capitalizations.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify a single, authoritative private market data provider (Nasdaq Private Market) via a direct URL, alongside explicit mathematical criteria for both private valuations and potential post-IPO public market capitalizations. The timeframe is unambiguously established through December 31, 2026, with well-defined contingency procedures for missing data, data cessation, IPOs, direct listings, and corporate acquisitions. Discretion is minimal since resolution relies on official published metrics.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

42%

chance

▼ −4 pts · 24h

Yes42¢
No59¢
↑$1.75T · Yes · 1MO 81.5 H 86.5 L 28.5 C 41.5−40.0 (−49.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +14 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 23:55 UTC

The price rose from 29% to 44% as part of a broader repricing across Anthropic valuation outcomes, alongside simultaneous shifts in three related markets.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, 41% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 54 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: ↑$1.5T (down), ↑$2.25T (down), ↑$2.5T (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 00:05 UTC

Earlier

▼ −31 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 14:40 UTCThe market price dropped from 49% to 28% alongside concurrent repricing across 3 related Anthropic valuation outcomes, which served as the likely driver.News check pending.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 00:40 UTC

Earlier

▲ +13 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 22:25 UTCThe price rose from 43% to 55%, with related valuation markets adjusting concurrently, though there is insufficient evidence to identify a specific driver for the move.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 22:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Rules history

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic's valuation reaches or exceeds $1.75T by December 31, 2026, using private secondary market pricing or subsequent public market capitalization.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's valuation is equal to or above $1.75T on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. This includes private valuations measured by the NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, valuations implied by an official IPO or direct listing price, or public market capitalization based on regular-hours trading prices multiplied by total outstanding common shares. Transaction or merger consideration does not count if the company is acquired or ceases to be independent. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by Nasdaq Private Market data, and by official primary exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts if an IPO or direct listing occurs. Revisions to previously published NPM data are disregarded unless correcting clearly erroneous data.

Resolution source

Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·