brierpoınt
Tech & ScienceCloses · in 52 days$525.1K volumePart of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? →

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify a single primary source (Nasdaq Private Market's NPM Price via a direct URL) and define the exact metric needed for a positive resolution (reaching or exceeding $1.5T).

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify a single primary source (Nasdaq Private Market's NPM Price via a direct URL) and define the exact metric needed for a positive resolution (reaching or exceeding $1.5T). The timeframe is fully specified through December 31, 2026, with an explicit short grace period to allow final publication of data. Thorough contingencies are laid out for potential edge cases, including IPOs, direct listings, mergers, acquisitions, and cessation of NPM coverage, with explicit guidelines on calculating public market capitalization and ignoring transaction consideration. Source discretion is minimal as resolution relies on published numerical market data.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

82%

chance

▲ +2.7 pts · 24h

Yes82¢
No18¢
↑$1.5T · Yes · 1MO 93.0 H 96.5 L 69.5 C 82.2−10.8 (−11.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +13 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 01:25 UTC

The price rose from 66% to 79% alongside moves in related valuation brackets, including gains in the $1.75T market and declines in the $800B market, indicating broader repricing across related outcomes as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 28% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 54 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑$1.75T (up), ↓$800B (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 01:43 UTC

Earlier

▼ −13 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 23:10 UTCThe price fell from 80% to 68% amid a thin order book with zero depth within 5 cents and a wide spread of 22%, pointing to thin liquidity as the likely driver.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 23:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +12 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 02:55 UTCThe market price rose from 72% to 85%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 03:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Rules history

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic achieves a private market valuation of at least $1.5T by December 31, 2026, or an equivalent public market capitalization if it goes public.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's private valuation, measured by the NPM Price from Nasdaq Private Market, reaches $1.5T or higher on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing, the market also resolves to Yes if the implied IPO/direct listing price or highest regular-hours public market capitalization hits $1.5T or higher. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. If Anthropic is acquired or ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuations prior to the transaction count; acquisition consideration is disregarded. Later revisions to NPM data are ignored unless correcting clearly erroneous data. Resolution is decided using NPM published data, or official exchange trading data and reported share counts following an IPO.

Resolution source

Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) data, or official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts following an IPO or corporate action

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·