Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a clear, standard formula for determining market capitalization using the primary exchange listing page on the first day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a clear, standard formula for determining market capitalization using the primary exchange listing page on the first day of trading. Explicit provisions cover potential trading interruptions, boundary values between brackets, and an expiration deadline of December 31, 2026, if no public listing takes place. Source discretion is minimal as the primary exchange serves as the direct authority.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Oura's market capitalization on its initial public offering (IPO) day falls within a specific range. The market has an unusual resolution condition if no IPO occurs by a specified date.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is between $12.5 billion and $15 billion, inclusive of the upper bound if the value is exactly $15 billion. The market resolves No if Oura's market capitalization on its first day of trading is not within the specified range. The market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027" if Oura's IPO does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If an interruption occurs during the first trading day, the market resolves based on the official closing price of the abbreviated session; if no such price is published, it resolves based on the next trading day's official closing price. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed there.
Resolution source
the primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·