Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies directly on official announcements from TIME magazine via its Person of the Year cover and feature article.
Read the full assessment
This market relies directly on official announcements from TIME magazine via its Person of the Year cover and feature article. The rules clearly address standard scenarios as well as collective or conceptual titles, specifying that an individual qualifies if explicitly named or if directly associated with a chosen concept and pictured on an official cover. A definitive backstop date of June 30, 2027, ensures that a failure to announce resolves cleanly to No.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −1.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is named TIME Person of the Year for 2026, including qualifying conditions if a group, concept, or thing is chosen.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is explicitly named TIME Person of the Year for 2026. If multiple people are explicitly named, each qualifies. If a concept, group, or thing is selected, he also qualifies for Yes if he is directly associated with it and pictured on an official TIME Person of the Year announcement cover. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market also resolves to No if no Person of the Year is announced by the fallback deadline. Resolution is decided using the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the selection, with the feature article also permitted.
Resolution source
TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year, or the TIME Person of the Year Feature article
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·