Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes an in-person meeting versus mere shared presence, but resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or specific government announcement.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes an in-person meeting versus mere shared presence, but resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or specific government announcement. Additionally, the text includes artifact clauses from a broader multi-option market, such as a definition for Gulf states and a specific 'No meeting by December 31' outcome, though the core requirement of an in-person interaction between the named individuals remains straightforward.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will take place in Turkey before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have their next in-person interaction in Turkey by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and directly interact through an exchange of words, a handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction, while mere proximity, eye contact, or sharing a room without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next meeting takes place in another location, or to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·