Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or named source, leaving the market decider to interpret media reports.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or named source, leaving the market decider to interpret media reports. The rules clearly distinguish between qualifying interactions (such as handshakes or direct conversation) and non-qualifying proximity (such as merely being in the same room). However, the rules contain stray definitions regarding Gulf states and specify resolving to 'No meeting by December 31', indicating language adapted from a multi-choice market that may create minor confusion regarding binary resolution outcomes.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin takes place in Russia before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have their next in-person meeting in Russia before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires an in-person encounter with direct personal interaction, such as an exchange of words, a handshake, or a direct conversation; merely sharing a room, standing nearby, or making eye contact does not qualify. The market resolves No if their next meeting takes place somewhere other than Russia, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·