Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government record or designated registry, giving whoever resolves the market significant latitude to evaluate media accounts.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government record or designated registry, giving whoever resolves the market significant latitude to evaluate media accounts. The rules explicitly require a direct personal interaction—such as a handshake, exchange of words, or direct conversation—and exclude merely being present in the same room, passing by, or making eye contact. In crowded international multilateral summits, determining whether a brief unscripted interaction met this threshold could be subjective if video evidence or reporting is conflicting. Additionally, the rules include an extraneous definition of Gulf states carried over from template text, though this does not alter the core criteria for evaluating an encounter in Switzerland.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have their next in-person meeting in Switzerland before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and directly interact through an exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction; mere proximity, eye contact, or co-presence without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next qualifying meeting takes place in another location. The market resolves to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·