Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on a specific calculation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, with a clear fallback resolving to 'No' if no token launches by December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on a specific calculation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, with a clear fallback resolving to 'No' if no token launches by December 31, 2026. However, resolution depends on 'the most liquid price source available,' which leaves room for interpretation as no specific exchange, aggregator, or metric for liquidity is defined. Additionally, determining what constitutes total token supply and whether a token is considered actively and publicly transferable can involve subjective judgment if launch terms or vesting mechanics are complex.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.35 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Ostium's token achieves a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) strictly above $200 million exactly one day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ostium's token has a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) greater than $200 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price from the most liquid price source available. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $200M at that time, or if Ostium does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The most liquid price source available determines the price.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·