Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the conditions for a positive resolution, including qualifying for the runoff or winning outright in the first round of the next presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the conditions for a positive resolution, including qualifying for the runoff or winning outright in the first round of the next presidential election, whether held on schedule or early. Resolution relies primarily on credible media consensus with an explicit fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting conflicts. A clear longstop date resolves the market to No if no election takes place or round-one results are unavailable by December 31, 2027.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether François Hollande advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, whether held as scheduled or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if François Hollande qualifies for the runoff second round of the next French presidential election or wins the presidency outright in the first round with over 50% of the vote. The market resolves to No if he does not advance, does not win outright in round one, if no election occurs, or if the first-round results remain unknown by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior deciding any ambiguous outcomes.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior resolving any ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·