Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market establishes straightforward criteria tied directly to the French two-round presidential electoral system.
Read the full assessment
This market establishes straightforward criteria tied directly to the French two-round presidential electoral system. It resolves to Yes if the named candidate advances to the second round or wins outright with over 50% in the first round, and resolves to No otherwise. There is a clear backstop resolving to No if no election occurs or first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027. While it permits a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly designates the French Ministry of the Interior as the definitive authority in the event of any ambiguity, leaving minimal room for decider latitude or unexpected interpretations.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Ségolène Royal advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round of the next French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ségolène Royal advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if she does not advance or win outright, or if no such election occurs, or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Government (specifically the Ministry of the Interior) serving as the deciding source if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·