Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes advancement to the second round under France's two-round electoral system, including an outright victory in round one.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes advancement to the second round under France's two-round electoral system, including an outright victory in round one. The market accounts for snap elections or standard timing with a clear longstop deadline of December 31, 2027. While resolution initially relies on credible reporting, there is an explicit fallback to the official results from the French Ministry of the Interior in case of ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Clémentine Autain advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round of the next French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Clémentine Autain advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if she does not qualify for the second round, if no such election occurs, or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·