Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly outline the conditions required for resolution: the market resolves positively if the named candidate qualifies for the runoff round or wins outright in the initial round of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly outline the conditions required for resolution: the market resolves positively if the named candidate qualifies for the runoff round or wins outright in the initial round of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early. If no election takes place or first-round results are not established by December 31, 2027, the market resolves negatively. Outcomes will primarily be determined by broad reporting consensus, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior serving as the definitive fallback in the event of ambiguity. The criteria are unambiguous and directly mirror the standard constitutional election process.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Carole Delga advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, applying whether held as scheduled in April 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Carole Delga advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if she does not advance or win outright, or if no such election occurs or the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on the election result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, it resolves based solely on official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with French Ministry of the Interior official results as the fallback for ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·