Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has straightforward resolution criteria requiring formal diplomatic recognition of Israel as a state rather than mere expressions of intent.
Read the full assessment
The market has straightforward resolution criteria requiring formal diplomatic recognition of Israel as a state rather than mere expressions of intent. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements, with a consensus of credible news reporting permitted as a backup. The deadline is clearly specified as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, though participants should note the specific year designated in the rules since it is omitted from the title.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iraq will officially recognize Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires formal governmental recognition rather than mere announcements of intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iraq officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only a formal government recognition counts toward Yes, while an announcement of intentions will not suffice. The market resolves to No if such official recognition does not occur within this timeframe. Resolution is determined primarily using official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted.
Resolution source
Official government information, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·