Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
10 live outcomes · highest priced: Pakistan at 3% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $996.9K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether various sovereign nations will formally extend diplomatic recognition to Israel as a state by the end of 2026. Each market within the event evaluates the recognition status of a specific individual country.
How the outcomes relate
Each outcome represents an individual country with its own market. More than one market can resolve Yes, as recognition by one country does not prevent or require recognition by any other country.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the specified country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of intentions does not count; formal government recognition is required. If formal recognition does not take place within this window, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined primarily by official government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 3% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Indonesia | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Malaysia | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Syria | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| North Korea | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Cuba | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Afghanistan | 1% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Tunisia | 1% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Iran | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Iraq | 1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Lebanon | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Venezuela | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Kuwait | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Qatar | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Bangladesh | — | — | Low | Med |