Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring Cuba to formally recognize Israel as a state by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring Cuba to formally recognize Israel as a state by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly distinguish formal diplomatic recognition from mere statements of intention. While the title does not specify the year, the text provides a specific end date and timezone. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements, though the decider may also consult a consensus of credible reporting if needed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cuba officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. A notable aspect is that mere announcements of intent do not count; formal government recognition is required.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Cuba officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of intentions does not count; only formal government recognition qualifies. The market resolves to No if such formal recognition does not occur by the specified deadline. Resolution will be determined using official government information as the primary source, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official government information, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·