Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that only formal government recognition of Israel as a state qualifies for a positive outcome, explicitly excluding mere announcements of intent.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that only formal government recognition of Israel as a state qualifies for a positive outcome, explicitly excluding mere announcements of intent. The deadline is anchored to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. While official government information serves as the primary standard, resolution may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, introducing some interpretive leeway for the resolving entity. Overall, the criteria are standard and unlikely to produce unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pakistan officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. A notable detail is that a mere announcement of intentions is insufficient for resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pakistan officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only formal government recognition counts; announcements of intentions do not qualify. The market resolves to No if such official recognition does not occur by the deadline. Resolution decisions are based on official government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·