Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly specifies that only formal diplomatic recognition of Israel counts, explicitly excluding mere announcements of intent.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly specifies that only formal diplomatic recognition of Israel counts, explicitly excluding mere announcements of intent. While official government sources are designated as primary, the rules also permit resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting without specifying which media outlets qualify, introducing moderate discretion. Additionally, because diplomatic recognition can take varied legal or bilateral forms short of full normalization accords, determining whether a specific intermediate action constitutes full official recognition may require interpretation by the market decider.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tunisia will officially recognize the State of Israel by December 31, 2026. Mere announcements of intent are explicitly insufficient for resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tunisia officially and formally recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of future intentions do not count toward a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if Tunisia does not formally recognize Israel by the deadline. The resolution is determined primarily through official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also serving as a valid source.
Resolution source
Official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also used.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·