Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria clearly specify that formal recognition of Israel as a state is required, explicitly excluding mere statements of intent.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria clearly specify that formal recognition of Israel as a state is required, explicitly excluding mere statements of intent. The deadline is set to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, resolving the missing year in the main title. Resolution relies primarily on official government communications, though credible reporting consensus may be evaluated if government confirmation is not directly available.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran formally and officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially recognizes the State of Israel between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A mere announcement of intentions does not qualify; formal diplomatic recognition is required. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not occur within the specified timeframe. Official government information serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official government information or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·