Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective mechanics for calculating the target figure, defining market capitalization explicitly as total shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the first trading day.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and objective mechanics for calculating the target figure, defining market capitalization explicitly as total shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the first trading day. The resolution source relies primarily on the official listing page of the primary exchange, with a backup provision only if that page fails to display the figure. Trading interruptions and tie-breaking edge cases (resolving to the higher range bracket if landing exactly on a boundary) are thoroughly addressed. There is also a firm expiration deadline of December 31, 2027, if no initial public offering takes place.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −1.8 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization falls within a specific range on its initial public offering (IPO) day. The market has a unique resolution if no IPO occurs by a specified date.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is between $2.0 trillion and $2.25 trillion, inclusive of the upper bound, at the closing price on its first day of trading. If the market capitalization is exactly $2.0 trillion, it resolves Yes. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization is outside this range on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization is calculated as the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. If that figure is unavailable, another reliable source will be used. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the market resolves based on the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published for that day, the market resolves based on the official closing price of the next trading day, which is then considered the first day of trading for this market.
Resolution source
the primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·