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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 413 days$884.3K volumePart of: Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap →

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market defines the calculation clearly as shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the first trading day, with a specific resolution source designated as the primary exchange's official listing page.

Read the full assessment

The market defines the calculation clearly as shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the first trading day, with a specific resolution source designated as the primary exchange's official listing page. There is a precise long-stop deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to a specific non-IPO outcome if no listing occurs. Edge cases regarding abbreviated sessions or missing official figures are clearly handled with straightforward fallback mechanics.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

22%

chance

▲ +2.45 pts · 24h

Yes22¢
No78¢
<$1.25T · Yes · 1MO 10.7 H 35.3 L 7.8 C 21.6+11.0 (+102.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC

The price dropped from 29% to 18% alongside repricing across 4 related Anthropic valuation brackets, including a rise in the $1.25–$1.5T outcome.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 60% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 416 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: $1.5–$1.75T (down), $1.25–$1.5T (up), $1.75–$2.0T (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTCThe price rose from 16% to 27% as related outcomes for Anthropic's IPO market cap repriced together, with two other brackets moving around the same time.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 12:20 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 18:25 UTCThe market price fell from 22% to 11% as related Anthropic IPO valuation outcomes repriced together, with higher valuation brackets such as $1.5–$1.75T and $1.75–$2.0T shifting upward at the same time.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization will be less than $1.25 trillion at the close of its initial public offering (IPO) day. The market has an unusual resolution condition if no IPO occurs by a specified date.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is less than $1.25 trillion at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization is equal to or greater than $1.25 trillion at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant figure is not displayed there, another reliable source will be used. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the market resolves according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published for an abbreviated session, the market resolves according to the next trading day's official closing price, treating that as the first day of trading.

Resolution source

primary exchange’s official listing page

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·