Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions required for resolution, establishing that the individual must win an investiture vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and be officially sworn in to lead a new government.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions required for resolution, establishing that the individual must win an investiture vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies and be officially sworn in to lead a new government. It explicitly excludes caretaker or interim leaders who do not pass a formal parliamentary vote. A specific deadline is established for March 31, 2028, with a clear fallback outcome if no new prime minister assumes office by then. The market primarily relies on official government sources, leaving little room for ambiguity or interpretive dispute.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether María Jesús Montero will become the next Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028. It specifically requires a formal parliamentary vote of confidence and swearing-in, excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers who lack parliamentary approval.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if María Jesús Montero is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, which requires receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in to form a new government. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under these conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·