Next Prime Minister of Spain?
20 live outcomes · highest priced: Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 84% (+2 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 30, 2026 · $3.7M total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will become the next Prime Minister of Spain. Each market corresponds to a specific individual and measures whether they will officially take office following a parliamentary vote of confidence by the specified March 2028 deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains individual candidate markets. Because the rules specify resolving to the single next individual who officially assumes the office after winning a vote of confidence, at most one candidate market can resolve Yes. If no individual qualifies by the deadline, the market resolves to Other.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the named candidate is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, the individual must win a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, leading to the official formation of a new government. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. If no qualifying individual takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to Other. Resolution relies on official information from the Government of Spain or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Núñez Feijóo | 84% | ▲ 2 | Low | High | |
| Pedro Sánchez | 14% | ▲ 3 | Low | High | |
| Santiago Abascal | 2% | ▲ 1 | Low | High | |
| Isabel Díaz Ayuso | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| María Jesús Montero | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Yolanda Díaz | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Ernest Urtasun | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Aitor Esteban | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Miguel Tellado | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Ester Muñoz | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Pepa Millán | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Cuca Gamarra | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Borja Sémper | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Carles Puigdemont | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Carlos Cuerpo | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Óscar Puente | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Juanma Moreno | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Félix Bolaños | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Emiliano García-Page | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Salvador Illa | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low |