Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both a formal vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and an official swearing-in.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both a formal vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and an official swearing-in. Caretaker or interim roles lacking parliamentary approval are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies directly on official Spanish government sources, backed by credible reporting, with a clear fallback to 'Other' if no eligible individual takes office before the specified deadline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ernest Urtasun will be the next person to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ernest Urtasun is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count, he must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, leading to the official formation of a new government; interim or caretaker Prime Ministers lacking a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves No if another individual meets these conditions first. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these conditions by the deadline. The resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·