Will Miloš Jovanović win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines its resolution condition based on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering any required second-round runoff.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines its resolution condition based on the winner of the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering any required second-round runoff. It resolves primarily via a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback source from the Serbian government if reporting is ambiguous. A hard cutoff date of March 31, 2028, exists to resolve the market to an alternate outcome if election results remain unconfirmed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Miloš Jovanović wins the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early, including any second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Miloš Jovanović wins the next Serbian presidential election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia) if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·