Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether Radomir Saičić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including potential runoffs or snap elections held before the deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether Radomir Saičić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including potential runoffs or snap elections held before the deadline. The resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity arises. A definitive resolution deadline of March 31, 2028, provides sufficient runway for election scheduling and certification, resolving to 'Other' if the outcome remains undetermined by that date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
79%
chance▲ +3.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Radomir Saičić wins the next Serbian presidential election, whether held as scheduled or called early.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Radomir Saičić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including via any potential second round. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the definitive results of the election are not known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results from the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with fallback solely to official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·