Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to hold office before the deadline, but it also contains several clauses that broaden the resolution criteria beyond formal removal.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to hold office before the deadline, but it also contains several clauses that broaden the resolution criteria beyond formal removal. A mere announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution to Yes even if the transition has not yet taken effect or is scheduled for a later date. Additionally, being detained, effectively removed, or permanently incapacitated qualifies for Yes, which relies on interpreting whether an event meets that standard. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the Russian government or Putin, but allows a consensus of credible reporting to serve as an alternative deciding source.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be the President of Russia by June 30, 2027. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date triggers immediate resolution even if the effective date is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2027 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Yes also triggers if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his presidential duties within the timeframe. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution decisions are based on official information from Vladimir Putin and the Russian government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·