Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president, is detained, or is deemed effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president, is detained, or is deemed effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. An announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the actual departure date falls after the market deadline. Deciders rely primarily on official statements from Putin or the Russian government, but they also have the discretion to resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. This discretion could become critical if there is conflicting reporting, an unconfirmed coup attempt, or opacity surrounding a health event or informal transfer of power.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. A notable aspect is that an official announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when it formally takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time before December 31, 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date is later. Detainment, effective removal, or being permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties within the timeframe also qualifies for Yes. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions are met. Resolution is determined using official information from Vladimir Putin and the Russian government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·