Putin out as President of Russia by March 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to hold office, but it includes exceptional early-resolution triggers: an announcement of a future resignation immediately triggers Yes even if he remains in power, as does him being detained or permanently prevented from carrying out duties.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to hold office, but it includes exceptional early-resolution triggers: an announcement of a future resignation immediately triggers Yes even if he remains in power, as does him being detained or permanently prevented from carrying out duties. The rules rely on official Russian government statements or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving significant judgment to the resolver to assess what counts as being effectively removed or permanently incapacitated if official Russian channels remain opaque or silent during a political crisis.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
7%
chance▲ +1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia by March 31, 2027. It includes an unusual provision where an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers resolution regardless of the effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time before the deadline. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date is later. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties within the timeframe also qualifies for Yes. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions are met. The resolution source is official information from Vladimir Putin and the Russian government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·