Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market provides a precise quantitative threshold using a single named source and exact URL from IMF PortWatch.
Read the full assessment
The market provides a precise quantitative threshold using a single named source and exact URL from IMF PortWatch. While the question uses subjective phrasing regarding an effective closure, the rules clearly define the condition as a 7-day moving average of transit calls falling to or below 10. The rules specify early resolution upon the threshold being met, a 14-day waiting window if year-end data is delayed, and clear mechanics for how data revisions are handled.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market explained
This market measures whether ship transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drop to or below a specified threshold by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if data through December 31, 2026 is published and no qualifying value of 10 or less was recorded. If no data is published for December 31, 2026 within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, the market resolves based on the data available up to that point. Revisions made before data for the listed date is published are considered but cannot disqualify an earlier qualifying point. Revisions after that date are disregarded. The resolution source is IMF PortWatch.
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·