Will Coalition of the Radical Left – Progressive Alliance (SYRIZA) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single direct official government release, though Greek government figures serve as a fallback if ambiguity arises.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single direct official government release, though Greek government figures serve as a fallback if ambiguity arises. The market includes intricate rules for coalition handling: if parties run together in a coalition, the entire seat total of the coalition is credited to either the single listed party or the party within the alliance that won the most seats in the previous election. Additionally, there are specific tie-breaking mechanics that look first at total valid votes received and ultimately at the alphabetical order of the party abbreviations. A hard timeout resolves the market to an alternate outcome if the election does not take place or certified results remain unclear by December 31, 2027.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Hellenic Parliament are scheduled to be held before July 25, 2027. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament as a result of the next Greek parliamentary election. If voting in the specified election does not occur or there continues to be ambiguity in the results as reported by the Greek government by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independent candidates and the formation of parliamentary groups will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Greek government. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Coalition of the Radical Left – Progressive Alliance (SYRIZA) wins the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections. The resolution includes specific rules for ties, coalitions, and ambiguity in results.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Coalition of the Radical Left – Progressive Alliance (SYRIZA) wins the greatest number of seats in the next Greek parliamentary election. This market resolves No if any other political party wins the greatest number of seats. If there is a tie in seats between SYRIZA and another party, the market resolves in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If a vote tie also occurs, the market resolves in favor of the party whose abbreviation appears first alphabetically. This market resolves to Other if the election does not occur or if there is continued ambiguity in the results reported by the Greek government by December 31, 2027. The resolution is based solely on the number of seats won by the named party, disregarding independent candidates and parliamentary group formations. If SYRIZA contests as part of a coalition, the market represents the coalition and counts all seats won by it. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the Greek government's reported results in cases of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Greek government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·